Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 1.655163 1.755138 1.860021 1.978607 2.109388 2.249701 2.412273
2025-11-30 1.515679 1.655327 1.808850 1.991442 2.204409 2.447130 2.747878
2025-12-07 1.403713 1.562559 1.742629 1.964246 2.233032 2.553052 2.970134
2025-12-14 1.306810 1.475159 1.670388 1.916953 2.225177 2.605106 3.121208
2025-12-21 1.242805 1.420057 1.629747 1.900750 2.248957 2.692234 3.318691
2025-12-28 1.206175 1.394265 1.621076 1.920873 2.316738 2.837455 3.604360
2026-01-04 1.159222 1.352362 1.588848 1.907179 2.337067 2.918290 3.805287
2026-01-11 1.132878 1.334180 1.584590 1.928156 2.403349 3.065251 4.116081
2026-01-18 1.101205 1.307260 1.567043 1.929359 2.441030 3.172832 4.377150
2026-01-25 1.086044 1.300453 1.574751 1.964287 2.527364 3.357308 4.781747
2026-02-01 1.044247 1.256995 1.531610 1.925970 2.504379 3.373374 4.906089
2026-02-08 1.003985 1.214013 1.487219 1.883380 2.471900 3.371224 4.997005
2026-02-15 0.977588 1.189472 1.468045 1.877475 2.496718 3.466126 5.282410
2026-02-22 0.959017 1.174716 1.461588 1.889471 2.549573 3.611357 5.684330
2026-03-01 0.929332 1.143716 1.431161 1.864405 2.542358 3.654633 5.893935
2026-03-08 0.895471 1.105872 1.389675 1.820776 2.502620 3.638198 5.979325
2026-03-15 0.872879 1.082765 1.368065 1.805817 2.507872 3.700424 6.238420
2026-03-22 0.862138 1.075611 1.368709 1.824393 2.568788 3.867275 6.754404
2026-03-29 0.842564 1.055446 1.349805 1.811753 2.576410 3.936261 7.060208
2026-04-05 0.833509 1.049721 1.351513 1.831115 2.639341 4.115388 7.666195
2026-04-12 0.819695 1.036773 1.342077 1.832226 2.670423 4.235411 8.151394
2026-04-19 0.815210 1.036936 1.351902 1.864443 2.758348 4.478427 9.027560
2026-04-26 0.792652 1.010445 1.321024 1.829098 2.722103 4.461242 9.166169